Super Tuesday: Anaysis and Commentary

I knew that the Democratic race would come down to a face-off between Senator Clinton of New York (by way of Arkansas) and Senator Obama of Illinois. In their first major hwad-ro-head confrontation on a national stage yesterday, the results were very interesting, but inconclusive as far as picking a nominee goes. According to CNN, Clinton has a slight lead in delegates at this point.

What I found interesting is that Senator Obama got more of the total popular vote, if you add all the results from all the primaries yesterday. Even though Senator Clinton won both of her home states of Arkansas and New York, Senator Obama’s margin of victory in his home state of Illinois outweighs Senator Clinton’s combimed margins in both New York and Arkansas. You would have to add her 300K margin of victory in California to the margins of victory in New York and Arkansas before she would top his margin of victory in Illinois.

Another thing that is interesting about Tuesday’s results is where eahc of the two Democratic contenders won. If we look at the results by region, Clinton won in the Northeast and the far West. The only three states she carried outside of those two regions were Arkansas,Oklahoma and Tennessee.

Obama carried states in the Northeast, the South, the Midwest, the Southwest, abd the Mountain states. So it can be argued that he has a broader national appeal tham Clinton.

What is really intriguing for me is the results of the caucuses in Alaska. If there is one state in this country where race is not really an issue, it would have to be Alaska. So, I think it is fairly safe to say that voters in Alasks would be more prone to vote issues rather than things like race or even gender.

Well, the causes in Alaska went for Obama by a 3 to 1 margin! That, to me, looms very large in terms of electability in November. For the first time in a very long time, the voters in November will have a clear choice between whichever two candidates are the nominees. For the first time in a long time, the election ill really be about the issues and not so much about personalities. And that is the way it should be.

Although Clinton and Obama are opposed, in general terms, to the Republicans on most issues, it is my considered opinion that Seantor Obama is further away from the Republicans than Senator Clinton. In other words, Obama offers more of a choice than Clinton. And I suspect that is a major factor in his national appeal.

The Bush administration, and the Republican party, have done much to alientate the American people, and no matter who the GOP nominee is or how personally appealing he may be, that person will have to overcome the negativite attitudes toward the GOP that eight years of King George II has created. The mood in this country is for something other than politics as usual and they seem to see Obama as the person who can bring that about.

I like Bill Clintom, always have. I thought, his personal sexual indiscretions aside,that he was a very good President. Certainly he was a better one than King George. And Hillary was a classy and influentail First Lady. She deserves a great deal of credit for how she handled herself during the Monica fiasco.

What really hurt her politically was not her husband’s moral lapses, but her efforts on universal health care. I fully support what she was trying to accomplish. Universal health care is something that this country sorely needs. Do you realize we are probably the only developed country that does not provide free universal heath care for its citizens? And we think of ourselves as the leaders of the free world?

Anyway, Clinton alienated a lot of people with her tactics in trying to get universal health care passed. And that has not endeared her to the American voters. She was caught between a rock and hard place with that initiative and she got crushed. People have not forgotten that and I feel that they are concerned that she will not be an effective instrument for change.

Also, in order for there to be effective change in American foreign and domestic policies, there needs to be a shift in the balance of power in Congress. There needs to be more Congressional delegates who will support policy changes.

That means a Presidentail candidate who can inspire voters to not only vote for him or her, but for all candidates who support policy change. A candidate with long and strong coattails. A candidate who is not

Thus, I am sticking my ywo cents in here and endorsing Senator Obama. But Hillary Clinton will be a good President if she is elected and, if she gets the nomination, I will most definitely support her candidacy to the best of my abilities. We have had enough conservatism in this country. It’s time for a change.

obligated to the status quo power structure. I N feUS RGr Hillary Clinton is perceived as having too many ties to the political establishment and, honestly, she is not very charismatic. She may indeed be very intelligent and very knowledgeable about the issues, but she has done a less than adequate job of convincing people of that. Nor has she inspired the level of enthusiasm among potential voters that Barack Obama has, I feel that Obama will have those longer, stronger coattalis while Clinton will not.

If you are interested in seeing the numbers from yesterday’s elections, click here.


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